The US Air Force has tested a hypersonic cruise missile in the Pacific for the first time, in what analysts say is a signal to China that Washington still competes in a weapons arena where many perceive Beijing to have a distinct advantage.
On March 17, a B-52 bomber flying out of Andersen Air Force Base on the island of Guam fired “a full prototype operational hypersonic missile,” an Air Force spokesperson confirmed in a statement to CNN.
The test of the hypersonic weapon, officially called the All-Up-Round AGM-183A Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW), was conducted at the Reagan Test Site on Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands, almost 1,600 miles (2,600 kilometers) to the east of Guam, the statement said.
Previous ARRW tests have been conducted off the US mainland.
The ARRW consists of a rocket booster motor and the hypersonic glide vehicle, which carries a conventional warhead.
It is “intended to attack high-value, time-sensitive, land-based targets,” a 2021 Defense Department document says.
Hypersonic glide vehicles travel at speeds greater than Mach 5, or approximately 4,000 miles per hour, making them difficult to detect and intercept in time. They can also maneuver and vary altitude, allowing them to evade current missile defense systems.
US officials have previously acknowledged that China and Russia have pulled ahead in the development of hypersonics.
China has been testing hypersonic glide vehicles that can carry both nuclear and conventional warheads since 2014, according to the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, a non-partisan lobbying group.
A US Air Force general said in 2021 that China had tested a hypersonic glide vehicle weapon that “went around the world,” while Russia fired a Zircon hypersonic cruise missile against Ukraine earlier this year, according to a Ukrainian government agency.
Speculation that the US would test a hypersonic missile in the Pacific emerged in late February, when a B-52 carrying the weapon arrived on Guam for what a news release called “hypersonic weapon familiarization training.”
Analysts said before the test that its presence was intended to be seen in Beijing.
“This test is intended to send a clear message to Beijing, namely that Washington remains steadfast in reinforcing its strategic posture in the Pacific, even amidst competing global challenges,” said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the nonpartisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“Of course, one US test won’t shift China’s hypersonic trajectory, nor will it resolve serious concerns regarding China’s perceived hypersonic edge,” Singleton said.
“But, it reaffirms that the US is not just an observer in the hypersonic domain, it’s a formidable player, and one committed to matching pace with China and Russia.”
The Air Force did not give any specifics on the test, such as how fast or how far the ARRW flew or whether it hit a target.
Rather, it said only that lessons were learned.
“The Air Force gained valuable insights into the capabilities of this new, cutting-edge technology,” the statement said.
It added that the trial “improved our test and evaluation capabilities for continued development of advanced hypersonic systems.” But the future for the ARRW model is uncertain, with Sunday’s test expected to be its last.
Last March, Air Force leaders told a congressional hearing that there were no plans to procure ARRWs for combat use.
The Air Force requested $150 million for ARRWs in fiscal year 2024; however, the National Defense Authorization Act did not authorize any funding for the program, according to a February report from the Congressional Research Service.
But Singleton said it may be too early to write off the ARRW.
“Signs suggest the Defense Department may be reconsidering its stance on the ARRW program, hinting at a potential revival in light of China and Russia’s hypersonic strides,” he said.
Air Force Lt. Gen. Dale White told the House Armed Service Committee last week that “future ARRW production decisions ‘are pending final analysis of all flight test data,’” according to a report in from Air and Space Forces magazine.
The last tests of the ARRW occurred in August and October of 2023, but the Air Force gave few details of what was accomplished. The first successful test of the system .
It added that the trial “improved our test and evaluation capabilities for continued development of advanced hypersonic systems.” But the future for the ARRW model is uncertain, with Sunday’s test expected to be its last.
Last March, Air Force leaders told a congressional hearing that there were no plans to procure ARRWs for combat use.
The Air Force requested $150 million for ARRWs in fiscal year 2024; however, the National Defense Authorization Act did not authorize any funding for the program, according to a February report from the Congressional Research Service.
But Singleton said it may be too early to write off the ARRW.
“Signs suggest the Defense Department may be reconsidering its stance on the ARRW program, hinting at a potential revival in light of China and Russia’s hypersonic strides,” he said.
Air Force Lt. Gen. Dale White told the House Armed Service Committee last week that “future ARRW production decisions ‘are pending final analysis of all flight test data,’” according to a report in from Air and Space Forces magazine.
The last tests of the ARRW occurred in August and October of 2023, but the Air Force gave few details of what was accomplished. The first successful test of the system occurred in December 2022.
The Air Force conducted what may be the last test of the AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon on March 17. But the service is being cagey about whether the test was a success.
“A B-52H Stratofortress conducted a test of the All-Up-Round AGM-183A Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon” on March 17, local time, at the Reagan Test Site near Kwajalein Atoll, an Air Force spokesperson said. The bomber took off from Andersen Air Force Base, Guam.
“This test launched a full prototype operational hypersonic missile and focused on the ARRW’s end-to-end performance,” the spokesperson said. The Air Force “gained valuable insights into the capabilities of this new, cutting-edge technology” from the event, the spokesperson said.
However, the Air Force declined to say what the specific test objectives were or provide details such as length of flight, where it struck the surface, or whether all elements of the launch, separation, and glide sequence happened as expected.
The ARRW is a multi-stage, boost-glide weapon. After separation, a booster—which is adapted from the Army ATACMS missile—accelerates the weapon to hypersonic speed when a clamshell shroud falls away, and the hypersonic glide body then maneuvers to the target.
“This test acquired valuable, unique data, and was intended to further a range of hypersonic programs,” the spokesperson said, likely referencing the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile, or HACM. “We also validated and improved our test and evaluation capabilities for continued development of advanced hypersonic systems.”
Lockheed Martin Missile and Fire Control builds the ARRW. In March 2023, Air Force acquisition chief Andrew Hunter said the missile would not be pursued into production, after the last tests were conducted to wring whatever knowledge could be had from the project. The line item for ARRW was zeroed out in the fiscal year 2025 budget request submitted to Congress last week. Previously, the ARRW had strung together mixed results from testing. The last all-up round tests in fiscal 2023 appear to have been successes.
However, in recent testimony, senior Pentagon leaders have been less definitive about the ARRW’s future. Pentagon acquisition and sustainment chief William LaPlante deferred questions about ARRW production to a closed session during a House Armed Services Committee hearing in February, testifying that “there is a plan—it’s not something we can talk about in this open session.”
Last week, Air Force Lt. Gen. Dale White, principal uniformed deputy to Hunter, told the HASC that future ARRW production decisions “are pending final analysis of all flight test data.”
He said the next event would be “the final test of the all-up round,” with completion by “the end of the second quarter, fiscal year 2024.”
Missile Defense Agency specially-modified Gulfstream aircraft performing High Altitude Observatory (HALO) missions have been operating from Guam and Hawaii in recent days, according to flight tracker data.
A Pentagon official said this first flight of the ARRW outside of the usual test area off the California coast is taking advantage of missile surveillance equipment that would also be used to detect and track missiles launched from China or possibly North Korea.
Asked whether the test was being conducted in this region as a message to China that the U.S. has an operational hypersonic capability, the official said, “they can interpret this any way they want … but you would expect us to derive as much value from one of these [events] as we possibly can.”
Programmatically, the Air Force has indicated that there is just one more ARRW test planned to complete the program, which service acquisition executive Andrew Hunter said last year would end in 2024. In written testimony to the House Armed Services Committee last March, Hunter said that although the Air Force didn’t plan to put ARRW into production, there is “inherent benefit to completing All-Up Round test flights,” in order to capture “the learning and test data that will help inform future hypersonic programs and potential leave-behind capability.”
A similar familiarization program was held before an ARRW test last year, at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif.
The ARRW is a boost-glide weapon, meaning that it is accelerated to hypersonic speed by a booster and then glides at hypersonic speed to the target, making unpredictable turns along the way to avoid defenses. The booster is the same as used in the Army Tactical Missile System rocket. After reaching hypersonic speed, a clamshell shroud opens, allowing the much smaller hypersonic glide vehicle to emerge and complete its mission.
If the test succeeds, it will demonstrate that the Air Force can generate a B-52 with ARRW from a forward location, fly a multihour mission to a launch point, launch an ARRW, and have it hit a target area after achieving hypersonic speed, with high probability of destroying the target.
Andersen is a key base in the Pacific, and Air Force bombers routinely deploy there for weeks at a time, engaging in training, wargames, and show-the-flag messaging operations. These include “freedom of navigation” flights through China’s air defense identification zone. Such Bomber Task Forces (BTFs) have increased in the last few years, while at the same time China has stepped up the frequency of exercises in which it bluff-charges Taiwan’s ADIZ with as many as 80 aircraft, a pattern seemingly meant to test Taiwan’s air defenses but also potentially intended to reduce Taiwan’s alertness with chronic false alarms of an invasion.
It’s not clear from the photos released whether more than one missile was included in the training. All the photos showed a single missile mounted on a pylon under the aircraft’s starboard wing. The Air Force has said a B-52 can carry up to four ARRWs on wing pylons.
About two dozen Air Force personnel were shown receiving the instruction.
The missile in the photos carries the serial number AR-AUR-005. The “AUR” likely references the term “All-Up Round,” the nomenclature for ARRWs that have a live ATACMS booster and live warhead. The Air Force released images of a similar training event at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., last year, and the missile in those photos had the serial AR-AUR-004.
If the Air Force plans to test-launch the missile in the photos in the Western Pacific, it would be the first time such a launch has occurred away from the coast of California, where all ARRW tests have been conducted so far.
The release said B-52 crews of the 23rd Expeditionary Bomb Squadron out of Minot Air Force Base, N.D., and the 49th Test and Evaluation Squadron out of Barksdale Air Force Base, La., conducted the familiarization. Personnel received “expert academics and training on hypersonic fundamentals and participated in tactical discussion on hypersonic operations to increase operational readiness,” the release stated. The instruction also included a discussion about logistics for hypersonic weapons.
Air Force budget documents said closeout testing of the ARRW would take place in fiscal year 2024, during which the flight envelope for launch will be further expanded, flying qualities will be assessed, and the weapon will be tested against ground targets.
Much about the ARRW contract is classified, but the Air Force has acknowledged that Lockheed Martin was to conduct design and development, produce a certain number of missiles for test, and produce an undisclosed number of “leave behind,” or left-over assets after testing that could be used operationally. Lockheed was also to demonstrate that it could produce the ARRW at scale, something the company has said it accomplished.
Subsequent to Hunter’s comment, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said the Air Force has shifted its focus to the HACM, which will be a smaller, longer-ranged weapon that could be carried by fighter-sized aircraft. The ARRW can only be carried by bombers.
Air Force officials said ARRW plans will become more clear in the budget request that will be forwarded to Congress on March 11.
Last March, the Congressional Budget Office pegged the unit cost of an air-launched hypersonic missile “similar to” the ARRW at between $15 million and $18 million across a production run of 300 missiles, but a ground-launched version would cost three times as much, due to the special launch infrastructure and additional boost capacity required. The CBO said it used the term “similar” because the actual numbers are classified.
Kendall has said that while hypersonic missiles match well to China’s operational concepts, they are less critical to USAF’s concepts of fighting and are important but not a top priority for investment.
A hypersonic ground-attack missile is best suited for striking high-value targets like command-and-control centers from long range, at high speed. Such weapons derive their destructive force both from a warhead and from the kinetic force of striking the ground at five times the speed of sound. Defense against hypersonic missiles, particularly if they are maneuvering, is difficult.
China is known to have deployed an undisclosed number of hypersonic DF-17 missiles with a long-range, tactical capability, while it has also developed hypersonic weapons to be mounted on intercontinental ballistic missiles. The DF-17 has been called a “carrier killer” and is also suited to a strike on a base like Guam.
“The Department of Defense is developing hypersonic science and technology to ensure the U.S. can rapidly field operational hypersonic systems,” the USAF said in its release about the familiarization program in Guam. The Air Force specifically “will continue to invest in researching, developing, testing, producing and fielding cost-effective weapons,” it continued. “These weapons are a mix of stand-off, stand-in hypersonic and subsonic precision-guided munitions. The Air Force also continues to develop revolutionary advanced weapon capabilities to maintain a competitive advantage over the pacing threat.”